Le Tour de France 2013: Predictions
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? An explosion. The 2013 Tour de France pits Chris Froome and his fellow Sky People against some of the strongest teams the Tour has ever fielded. There ought to be fireworks, and not the pathetic little sparkler show we witnessed last year.
Yellow Jersey
Yellow Jersey
1.
Froome
I cannot execute
proper reason without predicting Froome as the winner of the Tour de France. His
condition is just as good (if not better) than in last year’s race. Like the
Wiggins of 2012, the 2013 Froome has dominated the weeklong stage races, and
just like the Wiggins of 2012, the Froome of 2013 has not “peaked out”. He does
not need an army of Sky People in order to win. I believe that he is the best
climber in the race and arguably the best time trialer (certainly among the
contenders).
Froome’s testing
ground will be in the “transitional” stages, not in the mountain top finishes. He
lost Tirreno-Adriatico on a hilly day, and Wiggins collapsed in the undulating first
week of the Giro. Katusha, Movistar, Saxobank, and Garmin need to attack on stages
2 and 3. The more entropy, the better.
2.
Contador
He’s strong and
feisty, and his team is better than ever, but I can’t see him winning. I think
Froome will mark him in the mountains, and the time trial is no longer an area
of advantage for Alberto. Contador will hold nothing back, and a second place
finish will not satisfy him. I’m so excited to watch the Spaniards throw
everything they have at Sky.
3. Rodriguez
He is so underrated. He podiumed in two
grand tours last year, removed from the Vuelta win by one bad day. I expect him
to win a mountain top finish. I wish that there were punchy stages in the race,
but unfortunately, ASO (the people who make the route) don’t really understand
the concept of a punchy/hilly stage. J-Rod will get along just fine, however.
Katusha’s squad is built around him, and he is extremely motivated. I think his
time trialing will not bother him too much. The flat TT shouldn’t cost him more
than 2 minutes, he will go top 10 in the mountainous TT, and Katusha will
contend for the win in the team time trial. If he wants to win the Tour, he
will need to climb at an even higher level.
4.
Porte
Last year he finished
30th in the service of Wiggins, but his job is different now. He’ll
be doing what Froome did last year, being the last domestique remaining to set
the pace on the final climb. I think Froome and his main challenger will put a
bit of time into Porte on the mountain top finishes, but Porte will consistently
finish in the top 10. His time trialing will restore him to a top 5 position. I
don’t think there will be a Sky controversy. In terms of strength Froome was
closer to Wiggins than Porte is to Froome. Richie accepts his place.
5.
Valverde
I picked Valverde to
win the 2008 Tour and later vowed to never do that again. Last year, I picked
him to finish 8th, and he completely fell apart. He did, however, win
a stage and strut his stuff at the Vuelta. The Green Bullet has the support of Movistar,
and he should perform similarly to Rodriguez in the TTs. History has taught me
to distrust Alejandro Valverde, but the 2012 Vuelta taught me to never discard
him.
6.
Van Garderen
I would first like to
say that winning the Tour of California means very little. Very very little. I’m
sick of the hype NBC Sports gives him, but I know that I cannot let my emotions
run me. Tejay has performed consistently this season (Paris-Nice, Tour of Cali,
Tour de Suisse, Criterium Int’l, etc.), and his 2012 Tour performance gives him
further credibility. However, when the
poop hits the fan in the mountains, he won’t hang with Froome.
7.
Quintana
A completely focused Nairo Quintana would podium
at the Tour de France. During the final week, he will be climbing and time
trialing with the best. The question is, will he do that during the second
week? I think he will make some sacrifices for Valverde.
8.
Schleck
I believe in Andy
Schleck. His performance in the Tour de Suisse was the same as it always is.
Although he struggled to finish some races, Schleck’s 2013 season has been
similar to past years: based around the Tour. He will match the big guns in the
mountains, but I don’t think that will be enough for a podium.
9.
Pinot
He claims that he
cared more about Suisse than the Tour de France, but that is irrelevant. He was
a last minute call-up to the Tour in 2012,
and he still pulled off a top 10 and a stage win. He has a much shorter leash
now, so he’ll have to gain time by fighting mano-a-mano in the mountains. I
don’t think he will rise to the top this year, even though he may do so in the
future. The time has not yet come.
10. Van
den Broeck
He has to be the most
underrated GC contender. He has finished 4th in two different Tours,
but people are embarrassed to support him. He focuses on the Tour like Andy
Schleck, so you can’t judge his season until July is over. While VDB looked
awful in the Daupine, I think there’s still something there.
11. Talansky
I believe that he will
be the most consistent rider on Garmin. While he may not climb as well as
Hesjedal or pack the punch of Martin or race aggressively like Hesjedal,
Talansky’s time trialing is superior to that of his teammates. His performance
in last year’s Vuelta assured me of his durability, and his exploits at Paris-Nice
and other shorter stage races have revealed his potency.
12. Fuglsang
He time trials well
and climbs decently enough. Furthermore, he has a strong Astana team around
him. 12th place would be an incredible accomplishment for Fuglsang,
considering all of the strong riders taking the start. Ultimately, he won’t
climb well enough to make a significant mark on the race.
13. Evans
Cuddles will ride
safely in the first week and go into the first rest day incredibly close to the
Maillot Jaune. That’s how he always does it. However, I think Evans will fade
on Ventoux and following mountain stages. His Giro-Tour double won’t cause him
to fall apart as he did in 2010, but it certainly will limit him.
14. Moreno
As the leader of
Katusha, he could ride into the top 10. However, he is perfectly content to
sacrifice for Rodriguez. The sacrifice may manifest itself in Moreno attacking,
leading to the possibility of Moreno winning a stage. We will see how Katusha
plays it, but they need to keep Moreno in GC contention so that his attacks
will put pressure on Sky and give J-Rod an advantage.
15. Mollema
I don’t trust him
fully, but I think he is improving as a GC rider. With the full support of Belkin
and the hopes of his country, Mollema will do his best to fight it out in the
mountains. However, I just don’t see him as a serious contender.
Green Jersey
1.
Sagan
It’s simple. His
competitors can’t compete with him on the transitional stages. He’s going to
take the jersey by a landslide.
2.
Greipel
He was able to best
Cav last year, and this year brings similar circumstances. Greipel is far more
rested and focused. His leadout train is just as good.
3.
Cavendish
He will manage three
stage wins, but the thing with Cavendish is that he’ll either be first or
twentieth. That does not bode well for consistency. Plus, riding the Giro was
not advantageous to his Tour de France preparation.
4.
Kittel
Kittel is due for a
stage win, but last year’s Tour reminded us of his fragility. He struggled with
a stomach bug, well before he reached mountains. This year, I believe he will
struggle to survive the time cut.
5.
Ferrari
He has demonstrated
the ability to knock off top sprinters (figuratively and literally). Lampre
will support him with riders like Malori, Cimolai, and Favilli.
Polka-Dot Jersey
1. Cunego
2. Jon Izagirre
3. Gadret
4. Clarke
5. Hoogerland
2. Jon Izagirre
3. Gadret
4. Clarke
5. Hoogerland
Cunego needs to come
away with something. I think he can take this competition if he makes it a
serious objective.
White Jersey
1. Van Garderen
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Talansky
5. Jon Izagirre
White Jersey
1. Van Garderen
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Talansky
5. Jon Izagirre
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