4. Van Avermaet
I realize that I am biased towards climbers, I realize that. However, I see the elimination of the pure sprinters to be a necessity. As I see it, only four teams are purely determined for a large bunch finish: Garmin, Lampre, Lotto Belisol, and Sky (even though Lampre has Cunego, Lotto has Vanendert, and Sky has Boasson Hagen). I believe the onus to drop Cavendish/Greipel/Petacchi is on Katusha and BMC, BMC especially. BMC has Van Avermaet, whose sprinting is underestimated, Ballan, who does well at this race, and Gilbert, who doesn't require much of an explanation. Obviously Van Avermaet can't take Cavendish&co in a sprint, so BMC needs to attack and break things up. Gilbert will show everyone the form he was hiding and blow the race apart. Nibali will make a go of it, but he will find Simon Gerrans countering with Visconti and Sagan. Sagan will take Visconti in the sprint.
That's my take. Either that happens or Cavendish takes it over Greipel. I think my pick is more exciting.